A variance bridge can add to zero and still tell the wrong story. The source populations may use different cut-offs. A residual may have been renamed "mix." A stakeholder's explanation may sound plausible but have no transaction evidence behind it.
This skill controls the comparison before writing the commentary. It ties base and actual amounts to named sources, keeps currencies and versions separate, recomputes every variance, and labels each driver as supported, reported, inferred, proposed, or unexplained. It also keeps arithmetic reconciliation separate from causal proof.
Use it for budget-versus-actual, forecast, prior-period, revenue, cost, headcount, and operating-expense analysis. The package includes a decision rubric, a canonical JSON record, and a read-only checker for references, percentages, signed driver bridges, evidence states, actions, gates, and verdict consistency. It does not invent materiality, FX rates, mappings, forecasts, approvals, or accounting treatment.